Our methodology for betting NFL games is both less organic and less robust than our approach to handicapping college football. Importantly though, there is nothing to suggest it is less profitable. In fact, as is demonstrated below, through the first two weeks of the young season, we boast a record of 7 wins, 4 losses (for a strong 63.6% win rate). This follows our 59% win rate last season.

Our approach to betting pro football relies on a quantitative assessment, crosschecked by sentiment and (hopefully) supported by line movement. Our quant overlay is rooted in the efforts of two different third parties systems. We favor games where the two processes agree on the outcome. We then review bet flow and non-wagering contest pick data for our highlighted games. Our conviction rises when our picks are out-of-favor (as measured by the percentage of consensus picks/bets on our team). Empirical studies have demonstrated a statistically significant value to betting contrary to consensus NFL picks against-the-spread. And finally, we like to see the difference between opening and closing spreads move in our favor. Research has also found that point spreads are effective predictors of margin of victory. It intuitively follows that the movement of spreads toward their final values offers some indication of the final outcome.

For week 3 of the NFL season, our multi-prong approach identifies the following three opportunities:

Tampa Bay +7 @ Atlanta (September 18, 5:25pm)

New York Giants +2 vs. Houston (September 21 ,10:00am)

Chicago +3 @ New York Jets (September 22, 5:30pm)

Per SportsInsights, both the Buccaneers and the Giants represent out-of-consensus picks, having each garnered only about a quarter of all tracked wagers. Further, while the opening line reported for the Bucs/Falcons remains fixed, the Giants spread improved from +3 to +2 (i.e. NYG improved from 3 point underdogs to 2).

Currently, SportsInsights observes that the Bears have received 2/3's of the bet flow they track, and various sources suggest the spread moved meaningfully against Chicago. However, Bears @ Jets is the last game of the week and, as of yet, CappersMall counts only 492 bets on this game, compared, for instance to 3,480 wagers on Bucs @ Falcons. This is to say that while only our quant factor supports this pick currently, there is plenty of time and space for sentiment and the line to shift in our favor--we are not worried.

Happy betting!!