Our quant overlay system highlights against-the-spread wagers where various leading quantitative handicapping systems agree on the outcome. Last week, we were 2-1, with Carolina's undressing, at the hands of Arron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, the sole blemish on week 7 card (both the Chiefs and the Saints covered last week -- albeit barely). We are 15-13 on the season, for a marginal 53.6% win rate.
We continue to bide our time (hopefully eking out small profits) until a 'reversion to the mean' moment propels us to meaningful profitability.
This week, our approach highlights three NFL games:
Baltimore Ravens -1 at Cincinnati Bengals (10:00am Pacific)
VegasInsider reports the Bengals opened as 3 point as favorites, likely owing to speculation earlier in the week that star Cincinnati Wide Receiver, A.J. Green, would return to the starting lineup Sunday. Green is nursing a sprained toe, which has kept him sidelined for the last two weeks. Reports now suggest that Cincinnati will be without their star receiver for yet another week (indications now point to Green's return in week 9, versus the Jaguars). As a result of this development, the Bengals have been bid down to 3 point underdogs.
CappersMall & Sportsinsights both report that the public is modestly biased in favor of the Bengals to cover.
AccuScore simulations imply a 53.9% chance of a Baltimore win against the number.
Buffalo Bills +3 at New York Jets (10:00am Pacific)
We expect Buffalo QB, Kyle Orton, to realize some success throwing against the Jets' 19th ranked pass defense. Passing will be focal for the Bills today, as Buffalo must manage without RBs C.J. Spillers and Fred Jackson, who were both injured in last week's outing versus the Vikings.
Geno Smith played well for the Jets last week, at the formidable New England Patriots. He finished his first game of the year without an interception, completed 20 of 34 attempts (for 226 yards) and rushed for 37 yards on 7 carries. However, we are not convinced of a turnaround after just one good game. As is the case with Buffalo, we anticipate that New York will need to air the ball out, as the Bills' rushing defense is quite strong (ranked #5 in the league), which is to say that the Jets QB will have a chance to make us believers. But we anticipate that Smith will regress to the less efficient Geno we have come to expect.
Per Sportsinsights and CappersMall, the Jets have garnered about 65% of public bets (measured by the number of wagers, not necessarily dollar volume).
AccusScore ascribes a 55% probability to Buffalo +3.
Miami Dolphins -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami opened at -4, but public support for the Dolphins pushed the line out to -7 by kickoff.
Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has been in gear for the last three games, completing over 63% of his pass attempts. In fact, the Fins have averaged just under 30 points/game in weeks 5-7. The Jaguars are the absolute worst pass defenders in the NFL, so a disruption to Miami's recent aerial progress appears unlikely to us.
AccuScore simulations validate our assessment. Their work gives the Miami Dolphins -6 a 59.6% probability of cashing in.
With 77-78% of betting flows heading Miami's way, the public is solidly lined up in the Dolphins' camp.
From FiveThirtyEight.com, ELO Ratings have Buffalo not only covering, but winning outright. However, this approach is at odds with our other two picks.
Happy betting!