Miami Dolphins -6.5 at New York Jets (5:30PM, Paific)
Per FiveThirtyEight, heading into their week 13 matchup at the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins sport a 41.5% chance of making the playoffs, (victories by the Broncos, Saints, Chargers and Bills on Sunday helped their cause, while the Falcons loss detracted a bit from their efforts).
Conversely, the Jets have a zero chance of making a post-season appearance this year. So for all intents and purposes, the remainder of their schedule is meaningless to the team. As such, we expect the Dolphins to be mentally sharper Monday evening, as they have more riding on the outcome of the matchup.
As added incentive, in weeks 14 and 15, the Dolphins will have to contend with a Ravens team also chasing playoff ambitions (after yesterday’s narrow loss to the Chargers, Baltimore’s likelihood of post-season play fell to 43.1%, based on FiveThirtyEight numbers), and then the 9-3 New England Patriots, who are coming off a 7-game win streak. So there are no ‘gimmes’ after tonight (until weeks 16 and 17, maybe, when the Vikings and these same Jets visit Sun Life Stadium). This means the Fins cannot afford to squander opportunity before them currently.
With that said the Dolphins are considerably better than the Jets, on both sides of the ball, which is to say that there is more than perceived mental acuity separating these teams. To wit, Miami averages 9.8 points per contest more than New York, and allows 7.6 points per game less.
The Jets do boast a notably strong ground game, anchored by their two Chris’. And they do not merely gain running yards because their passing game is so inferior that they shy away from throwing the ball and overload the rush attack. True, the Jets rank 20th of 32 teams in pass attempts per contest, throwing the ball 4.4 times fewer than the league median. And OK, the Jets also rank number 7 in rushing plays, running the ball 2.4 times more than the median. However, New York averages 4.7 yards per rushing play – which makes them 5th in the league by this measure. Combined, Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson have acquired 979 yards on 222 attempts for the Jets. This split duty production is not dramatically different than the output of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ RB extraordinaire, Le’Veon Bell, who has amassed 1,046 yards on 216 carries so far this season, or LeSean McCoy for the Philadelphia Eagles, who has collected 1,018 yards on 242 attempts. Thus, it appears as though the Jets run more becuase their ground game is strong, not becuase they are weak throwing the ball.
Unfortunately for New York however, the Dolphins rank 10th in the league at defending the run. Further, Jets QB Geno Smith’s aerial struggles make a New York ground attack rather predictable, and easier to combat (Smith has completed a meager 57.6% of his attempts, and his 10 interceptions overwhelm his 7 TD tosses; this body of work translates to a Total QBR of 27.6 – the league’s median is 56.7). Even with the Dolphins possibly playing without Cortland Finnegan (ankle) and Jamar Taylor (shoulder), we still expect Smith’s impotency to be a central theme. Fourth rounder, Walt Aiken, will play opposite Brent 'Optimus' Grimes (so dubbed after this beautiful one-handed interception of an end zone pass by Matt Stafford intended for Detroits Lions Receiver, Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson), however, we doubt Geno Smith will be accurate enought to exploit any mismatches that result.
Bottom Line: We don't see any reason to expect the Jets to cover tonight. Geno Smith's difficulties this year have been ridiculously consistent, so success in the air seems unlikely, and while the Jets two Chris' have been formidable on the ground, the Dolphins are great defenders against the rush. Further, the lack of a passing threat makes the Jets run game foreseeable. We expect Miami to get the win/cover this evening in a no-sweat fashion.
The line opened at Dolphins -4, but when news broke of Smith being inserted at the starting QB spot over Michael Vick, the line jumped to -6.5. VegasInsider and SportsInsights report a consensus spread of Miami -7 as of the time of this writing.
Consistent with this movement in the line, CappersMall and SportsInsights indicate that the 78%-84% of public betting favors the Dolphins to cover.
Elo ratings suggest Miami Dolphins should be favored by 4.5 points.
Happy betting!!