Chicago Bears +4 vs Dallas Cowboys (December 4, 5:25pm, Pacific)
Several approaches that we employ point to the Chicago Bears covering as four-point underdogs at home when they face America’s Team for the NFL's Week 14 edition of Thursday Night Football.
For one while the Don Best/Linemakers Power Rankings lists Dallas the superior team (the Cowboys are tied for 16th, while Chicago is tied for 25th), this hierarchy makes the Boys only 4 points better on a neutral field of play. Don Best and The Linemakers feel home field advantage for the Bears is worth 2.5 points, thus the adjusted handicap of Dallas -1.5 compares quite favorably (for Bears supporters) to the listed line of -4.
Similarly, Massey-Peabody ranks Dallas as the 11th best team in the league, while Chicago is ten slots lower on the list, at 21st. Per this framework, Dallas is roughly 2.5 points better than an average team on a neutral field, while Chicago is close to 2 points worse than average. Once one factors in value to the Bears for the game being played at Soldier Field, the implied line, again, shrinks to well below the stated line of 4 points.
Six mainstream power rankings systems we surveyed are uncannily synchronous in the placement of these two teams: the average and median rank for Dallas is 8 and is 23 for Chicago. While this observation does not directly lend itself to derivation of a spread estimate, the 15-space distance between these teams does argue that a spread of more than four points is warranted. However, we question the informational content of such services given that extreme similarity of output (all they all using the same data, the same way?).
In addition to rankings-based approaches, computer simulations also endorse Chicago to cover. For instance, one popular service that we regularly use as a cross-check gives the Bears a roughly 60% chance of beating versus the number. These forecasters see strong play by QB Jay Cutler and limited turnovers as keys to Chicago's success.
Separately, we have devoted a fair amount of ink in recent weeks to the concept of 'psychological edge'. The premise underlying this thinking is that teams in the playoff hunt are less likley to make mental errors that detract from their chances of post-season play. In tonight's contest, Dallas should be mentally sharper, as their hopes of playing into January hang in the balance. Per FiveThirtyEight, coming into week 14, the Cowboys chances of making the post season were akin to a coin toss. But by their reckoning, a win tonight boosts Dallas' probability of making the playoffs to north of 60%. Antithetically, the Bears are no longer in playoff contention. With nothing to look forward to beyond week 17, it might be easy for Chicago to roll over for the remainder of their 2014 schedule.
This facet of handicapping is extremely difficult to quantify. And unfortunately, history does not offer any guidance, as the Bears have not been entirely out of the playoff mix at this point in the season in the past several years. Perhaps, the best we can do here is to hope that professional pride keeps the Bears engaged.
Bottom line: we are betting Bears +4 with our model. We believe Chicago has the talent to keep the game close (against the porous defense of the Cowboys, that is). Our worry is that there is nothing at stake for the Bears, so they might tank. Despite the fact that Chicago does not have a proverbial dog in the playoff race, we are betting they will muster the dignity to compete honorably.
VegasInsider reports an opening line of Dallas -4.5, but that the spread has tightened to -4. Conversely, SportsInsights suggests an initial spread of -3.5, vs. a current line of -4.
The public is solidly backing Dallas, per SportsInsights, but CappersMall indicates that 55% of the bet count on their radar favors Chicago.
Happy betting!!