Atlanta Hawks -2.5 (-118) at Orlando Magic
Computer simulations-based outcomes point to a Hawks victory by 5-7 points.
This makes sense, intuitively as Atlanta is a superior basketball team to the Orlando Magic. The Hawks are 16-6 straight up, while the Magic is 9-16. As of this past Monday, Atlanta is 10th on NBA.com’s Power Rankings list, and is likely to climb further in next week’s iteration given that they are 3-0 since the order was last established. Orlando was number 20 last week. The Hawks have won their last 9 games, and their streak includes three road victories – each by double digits – over teams of similar quality to the Magic (at 16,22 and 23, respectively, the Heat, the Nets and the Pacers power ranking is, at least, loosely clustered around the Magic’s number).
We see 2.5 points as a small number to lay on the Hawks against an inferior Orlando squad.
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic o194
Separately (but relatedly), yesterday's contest between these teams resulted in an anomolously low total score of 168 (these teams median and average scores suggested 196-198). Today's total, set at 194.5 (which we bought down to 194), is likely downwardly biased as a result of yesterday's yawner, but we regard that outcome as a fluke. As such, we think 194 is a mispricing that creates opportunity. We anticipate a 'reversion to the mean'-type total tonight.
The simulations are in unision with the median/average scores for these teams and point to a total tonight in the 198-199 range.
Memphis Grizzlies -10 & Philadelphia 76ers
The computers point to the 18-4 Memphis Grizzlies handling the 2-20 Philadelphia 76ers tonight by a margin of 15-18...enough said.
Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 at Milwaukee Bucks
Simulations indicate about a 5 point cushion against the line in this matchup as well.
With a 7-2 road record, the Clippers do not seem to have too much trouble playing away -- especially against teams with losing records (LA's two road losses came at the hands of Memphis and Golden State). The Clips were favored in each of the seven aforementioned road wins, and covered five times. 4.5 points should be manageable tonight.
Happy betting!!