Tennessee Titans +3 (-125) vs New York Jets
This game WILL NOT typify the artisty that gridiron competition exemplifies, when played at its best. This game will not even come close. The Jets and the Titans are vying for singular ownership of the worst record in the league, as such expect an sloppy, ugly game, replete with mistakes and forgone opportunities.
Quantitatively, we don't see much of a difference between these teams -- based on power rankings, we make New York as between 0.5 and 1.5 points better than Tennessee on a neutral field. However, Tennessee will host Sunday's contest, which offsets the Jets' modest advantage.
Similarly, through 10,000 trials, the simulation component of our methodology sees these teams as virtually deadlocked.
Titans rookie QB, Zach Mettenberger, injured his throwing shoulder last week versus the New York Giants, and is reportedly done for the remainder of the season. Fourth-year pro, Jake Locker, is to take the helm Sunday. Mettenberger failed to secure a win in six starts and registered an anemic quarterback rating of 30.1 (the median QBR for all passers 44.9). Conversely, Locker's 2014 QBR is 52.9, suggesting the personnel change for week 15 represents an upgrade.
The line on this game opened Titans -1, but Jets backers pushed the spread to Jets -3. We find the Tennessee plus a field goal too enticing to pass up, since we see this game as about a pick.
Seven of ten wagers spread public tracked by SportsInsights support the Jets.
Per FiveThirtyEight, Elo ratings, with a home field advantage adjustment, likewise favor the Titans.
Happy betting!!