Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 vs Oakland Raiders
The sim component of our system sees Kansas City cruising to an easy 18 point win and cover.
Our power rankings based approach also points to the Chiefs against the spread, as, per our system, Kansas City is about 4 points better than an average team on a neutral field, while Oakland is more than 8 points worse than average. After factoring in a premium for home field, the Chief's advantage looks to be in the 15 point ballpark.
After knocking off the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in week 11, FiveThirtyEight estimated Kansas City's playoff chances to be about 65%. Since then, the Chiefs suffered consecutive losses to the Raiders, Broncos and Cardinals . Resultantly, their playoff chances have diminished materially, to 22% heading into Sunday's contest. But even with less than a one in four chance of advancing to the post-season, the Chiefs are still in the hunt. On the other hand, the Raiders have been entirely eliminated from playoff consideration. Thus, Kansas City needs this game more. We expect the Chiefs will exhibit the mental focus needed to deliver a decisive victory and cover.
SportsInsights reports an opening line of Chiefs -12. The number has since moved 1.5 points in the Raiders direction, however. While the move has been opposite our pick, we
Elo ratings, adjusted for home field advantage, point to Kansas CIty just eking out the cover.
Happy betting!!