Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks o208.5 (-117)
The computers point to a combined score of between 212.5 and 223.1, providing at least a four-point buffer between the simulations-based prediction and the betting line.
Also consistent with playing the OVER, an examination of the Hawks scoring on the road and Dallas' productivity at home hints at a total in the 214-217 ballpark.
CBS Sports reports that Hawks starting PG, Jeff Teague, is listed as doubtful this afternoon. Until straining his left hamstring last week, the sixth year guard from Wake Forest had been having a banner year, averaging 16.8 pts, 7 assists and 2.5 rebounds per game (over his NBA career, Teague has averaged are 11 PPG, 4.8 APG and 2 RPG).
Second-year, former German pro, Dennis Schröder has gotten the start in Teague's absence.
In the two games Teague's has missed, the Hawks scoring does not seem to have suffered. Atlanta put up 127 points at Cleveland and 104 at Houston -- higher than their median away score in both cases. However, the difference between Teague's +2.1 and Schröder's -0.1 Real Plus Minus suggests that we should expect the Hawks average scoring margin to shrink from +6.1 points to +1.8 while their roster is compromised.
Subtracting this 4.3 point swing (6.1 - 1.8 = 4.3) from the adjusted median score shown in the previous table results in an estimated total in the 210 ballpark -- offering much less value to backers of the OVER. However, consider that the Mavericks own the 23rd worst defense in the league (as measured by points allowed). Dallas gives up more than two points per game above the league average. This observation boosts our estimate for the total back to the 212 ballpark -- comfortably north of the 208.5 betting line.
Happy betting!!