Brooklyn Nets +11.5 (-118) @ Chicago Bulls
One of the computers we rely on to simulate NBA contests sees the Chicago Bulls beating the visiting Brooklyn Nets tonight by a six point margin (101.6-94.6). The other machine we use gives the Bulls slightly more breathing room, forecasting a 103.5-95.7 win. Thus our sims-based forecasts project a 3.7 to 4.5 margin for error -- a bit shy of the five point cushion we look for from the core of our handicapping system. As such the Nets at the Bulls modestly misses the threshhold for becoming an official play (instead, we are betting this game off the record -- which is to say that this wager will not be graded against our results for the full season).
In support of playing the Nets against-the-spread, the power rankings approach we adopted recently to compliment our simulation output suggests the line on this game offers more value than any other contest on today's docket.
Both the Net's and the Bull's are more than two years older than the league average (based on player ages, weighted by minutes logged). In fact, per Adam Fromal for Bleacher Report, Brooklyn and Chicago are the third and fourth oldest teams in the NBA by this measure. Moreover, both teams played last night.
Tonight will mark the Bulls' eighth sequence this season of playing two games in two days. Chicago is 3-5 in the second game of back-to-backs, and their largest margin of victory in the three wins was seven points. Brooklyn is 2-4 in games 2's of back-to-backs; while Nets' losses on no rest to the likes of the Warriors, Spurs and the Raptors are perfectly acceptable, the 25 point rout at the hands of the Indiana Pacers just days ago might be cause for concern.
Nonetheless, if the impressive win against the Kings last night is any indication, the Nets seem to be gelling with Mason Plumlee holding down the front court and Jarrett Jack running the point. The newfound chemistry is so palpable that Coach Lionel Hollins has resisted reinserting the high-paid duo of DeRon Williams and Brook Lopez back into Brooklyn's starting lineup.
We expect a competitive contest for the most part, and think the reinvigorated Nets can keep it reasonably close.
Happy betting!!