Utah Jazz +1 at Minnesota Timberwolves
A composite made up of the two computer simulation routines we employ, plus our newly instituted power rankings approach suggests about a six point buffer (in Utah's favor) between the betting line and our forecast result. Most conservatively, one computer gives Utah a 2 point advantage versus the betting line, while the other is more generous, making the Jazz better than 8 point favorites against the number. Similarly, power rankings make Utah 9 points better than the Wolves when considering the spread. As such, we are comfortable betting the Jazz +1.
These teams faced off just four days ago, only Utah played host for the December 30 matchup. That contest ended with the Jazz winning, 100-94. TeamRankings estimates the value of home court for Utah to be virtually nil (0.2 points), while Minnesota's advantage playing at their Target Center is 2.8 PPG. If we adjust last Tuesday final score to account for the reversal of roles today, the implied score for this evening's game is 99.8-96.8 -- the Jazz still come out on top.
Since these teams last met though, Utah's starting Center, Enes Kanter, sprained an ankle and the Jazz's starting Shooting Guard, Patrick Christopher, dislocated a kneecap (both injuries occurred Friday, in a losing effort versus the Hawks). Of interest, backups Rudy Gobert (C) and Dante Exum (SG) boast better RPMs than do the starters (Kanter -3.02 vs Gobert +1.58 and Christopher -1.44 vs Exum -1.03). As such, we are not convinced that the Jazz are notably worse off playing Gobert and Exum in place of Kanter and Christopher.
While we acknowledge that the personnel rotation necessitated by these injuries stretches Utah's bench, we also observe that, per HoopsStats.com, the Jazz ranks 23rd (of 30 NBA teams) in bench minutes played -- so we are not sure that borrowing potential production from the bench really matters that much for Utah.
Bottom line: in this battle of the (near) bottom, we see the Jazz as being less bad than the Wolves. Accordingly, we are comfortable betting on Utah to cover.
Happy betting!!