Detroit Pistons +8.5 (-118) at San Antonio Spurs
Our work recommends betting on the boys from Motor City and taking the points when the Pistons match up with the Spurs at AT&T Center in San Antonio this afternoon.
One simulation routine we rely on makes the Spurs 4.1 points better than the Pistons, on average. The other machine measures the defending champs' advantage as 3.6 points. After considering that San Antonio is favored by 8.0 points at most bookmaking shops, the value proposition is clear. As is our custom, we recommend buying the line up to 8.5 points to get into the ballpark of the five point cushion that we desire from each individual factor in the system.
The power rankings component of our approach likewise highlights value betting the Pistons, estimating that this game is a virtual pick. Keep in mind though that this indicator is based on factors that can be quantitatively assessed, such as game outcomes, home court advantage and strength of opposition. This measure does not consider more qualitative characteristics, such as Spurs head coach, Gregg Popovich's tendency to rest his ageing stars in unimportant games or in contests versus inferior oppostion. This is to say that the Spurs may be underrated by this gauge.
Nonetheless, as we strive to minimize the extent to which bias influences our thinking, we like that this element explicitly excludes subjective assessments of 'what the Spurs are capable of ' and instead focuses squarely on what San Antonio 'has done'.
The graphic below indicates our system's expectation for both games on today's NBA calendar. While our methodology also suggests a bias toward the Bucks to cover, this theoretical advantage appears too slight to warrant a play with any conviction. We therefore remain fixated on the Pistons at the Spurs -- where compelling vlaue is evident.
A combination of age and injury has negatively impacted the output of the Spurs this season. As such San Antonio is a disappointing 7-10 against-the-spread at home, including 3-2 in the last five contests they have hosted. And while it seems reasonable to expect that at some point in the near future, things will come together, San Antonio is clearly not out of the woods yet: Kawhi Leonard is expected out until mid-month as he recovers from a torn ligament in his shooting hand, and Tony Parker is still dealing with a hamstring sprain (the San Antonio point guard's condition has been upgraded from questionable to probable for tonight's action -- and the computers expect Parker will go).
Meanwhile, Detroit is 10-23 straight up and, at 13-20, is not much better versus the number. However the Pistons are 5-0 both outright and against the spread in their last five games, and are playing their best basketball of the season.
We like Detroit to keep things close tonight against a battered Spurs unit still struggling to find their prior form. We are quite comfortable taking the road dogs in this spot.
Happy betting!!