Phoeniz Suns +5 @ Memphis Grizzlies & Memphis on the Moneyline
We have constructed a low risk spread to reflect our view that the Phoenix Suns will likely fall short, but will finish within striking distance against the Memphis Grizzlies this afternoon at FedEx Forum in Tennessee. If the Grizzlies win by between 1 and 4 points, we will collect a 65.6% profit. On the other hand, if one team (either team) pulls away, we lose 17%.
Supporting our play today, as is shown below, two of the three factors in our handicappiing methodology (one of the simulation routines and the quant-based approach) point to Memphis just barely eking out a win this afternoon.
After starting poorly, Phoenix is playing good basketball over the past month or so. The Suns were 12-14 through mid-December but are a red-hot 10-3 since. Phoenix has recently managed a six game winning streak, highlighted by victories over Washington and Dallas, and another four-game string that included a win over Toronto and three W's on the road.
As the Suns have found some success, Memphis has receded. The Grizzlies are 4-7 in their last 11 contests, and have dropped three at home during this stint (inlcuding a loss to the Jazz). In fairness, PF Zack Randolph was out with a sore knee for much of this period. Z-Bo returned to action Friday but is probably not in the condition he needs to achieve to be most effective for Memphis (Randolph contributed 11 and 11 in the losing effort at New Orleans). Thus, while Memphis is likely on the edge of an upswing, it might take a few games before the grindhouse is what it was earlier in the year.
To construct the bet pair we prescribe, wager 55.19% of one's risk amount on Memphis to win (assuming a moneyline of -200). Bet the remaining 44.81% on Phoenix +5 (-118). This setup is illustrated below for a hypothetical $100 total bet amount.
It is mathematically impossible to lose both bets, so worst case is a $17.22 loss of every $100 risked. A better outcome though would be for Memphis to win by exactly 5 points, in which case this spread would pay $27.59 profit for every $100 wagered. But, by far, the most desirable resolution to bettors of this pair would be for the Grizz to dispatch the Suns by less than 5. Of the three possibilities, this outcome would result in the highest profit. As we see a reasonable probability for the larger payout, and given the minimal risks, we are compelled to make a play.
Happy betting!!