Dallas Mavericks +3 (-118) at Denver Nuggets
The Mavericks face the Nuggets as two point road underdogs this evening. Dallas played more than four quarters last night, as an overtime period was required before the Mavs ultimately dispatched DeMarcus Cousins and the Sacramento Kings at Arco Arena. As Dallas is the second oldest team in the league, when player age is weighted by minutes played, our guess is that concern about the Mavericks fortitude explains why Denver is favored tonight, despite being the inferior team (our favorite power rankings heirarchy ranks Dallas fourth and Denver 17th).
We think fears related to Dallas' ability to play well twice in as many nights are overblown. The Mavericks record supports this thesis. Dallas is 5-2 in the second contest of back-to-backs where the latter game is played away.
Moreover, the Mavericks have owned the Nuggets in recent years, going 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver and 7-3 in their last ten games of this series.
One simulaiton program we employ makes Dallas two points better than Denver. The other gives the Mavs a seven point advantage. Our quant factor likewise make the Mavs seven point better than Denver tonight.
Thus, all signals suggest Dallas should cover as two point road dogs tonight at Pepsi Center. As such, we are comfortable betting on the Mavs to cover in this spot.
Happy betting!!