Brooklyn Nets +6.5 at Sacramento Kings
Our three-pronged methodology sees this game as much closer than the betting line implies. Our sim work predicts the Kings will either lose outright or just barely eke out a (1-point) victory. Our quant-based factor makes the Nets five points better than Sacramento.
Both teams have struggled of late. The Nets are 2-8 straight-up recently, while, at 3-7, the Kings are hardly better. However, Brooklyn is 8-3 versus the number in their last 11 contests against sub-.400 teams.
Further, we were enocuraged by the Nets' dominating performance in Washington Friday, winning outright as double-digit underdogs. We see no reason to expect Brooklyn to flounder against a Sacramento team that is a meager 5-11-2 of late on their home floor. Thus, as is our typical pattern, we are betting on the road dog.
Happy betting!!