Indiana Pacers +13 @ Atlanta Hawks (-118)
Our work sees the Hawks as no more than 8 point better than the Pacers tonight when these teams hook up at Philips Arena. Sure, Atlanta has won and covered their last 13 games outright and ATS, while Indiana has dropped their last six games straight-up and versus the number. However, the Pacers rank eighth in points allowed in away games, and fifth in defensive efficiency on the road. As such, we expect the Hawks to encounter some reasonably stiff resistence to their efforts to put points on the board.
Further, while good they are, the Hawks are not a dominant home team. TeamRankings pits Atlanta 27th by the value of home court advantage. Monday's close contest (for much of the game, anyway) versus the Pistons might support this position.
In recent matchups in Atlanta between these teams, Indiana is 4-1 ATS. Moreover, the road team is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Hawks and Pacers.
Bottom line: The two simulation factors included in our handicapping methodology suggest an eight point Hawks advantage. The quant-based component of our approach has Atlanta a mere two points better. We expect the Pacer defense to hold the Hawks to a below-par shooting perentage, and to keep the final margin down in the single digits. Taking the points and the road, dogs.
Happy betting!!