Dallas Mavericks -8 (-118) at Minnesota Timberwolves
Dallas surprised bookmakers Monday by knocking off the Memphis Grizzlies as three point road underdogs. Our work anticipates the Mavs will roll on tonight, winning by double digits (11-18 points) when they travel to the Target Center to challenge the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota is 9-13 against the spread this season in situations where they 9.5 point or less road underdogs. Dallas is 11-4 over the last 15 games played in Minnesota.
The Mavs sport a premier offense, registering (on average) the second most points per game in the league, and ranking fifth by points scored on the road. Conversely, Minnesota's defense is terrible. The Wolves allow a league worst 108 points per game on average and rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
We see no reason to question the indications from our model, and are therefore comfortable betting the road favorites here. We think the Timberwolves' defensive ineptitude will translate to Dallas skipping town with a double-digit win.
Happy betting!!