Brooklyn Nets +14.5 (-125) at Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers host the Nets at Staples Center this evening. This contest comes after Los Angeles defeated the Celtics on this same floor three days earlier. At 28-14 on the year, Los Angeles is playing solid ball, including winning seven of their last 10 games.
Conversely, Brooklyn is 2-8 of late, but have won two of their last three games. Both 'W's have come on the road, from the underdog position (at Washington and Sacramento). Thus being cast as the dark horse, in unfriendly territory should not be unfamiliar to the Nets.
Our simulation work anticipates the Clippers by 8, thereby highlighting the substantial value that exists for backers of the road dogs. This forecast fits with the observation that Los Angeles is 0-3 of late when favored by 10 points or more, and is 6-9 on the year from this spot.
Our quant factor anticipates as a close contest, with the Nets ultimately coming out on top -- further supporting the value proposition related to choosing the Nets to cover. This gauge is based on generalized assessments of the Clippers' play at home and Brooklyn's road game.
The Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, and are 5-0 versus the number in theie last five meetings with the Clippers. Los Angeles is 1-4 in their last five out, and 0-4 in the last several games versus the East.
Bottom line: We expect Los Angeles to be a bit better at most all facets of the game tonight. However, Brooklyn has been playing more competitive basketball of late -- just ask the Washingotn Wizards, who got handed a 22 point loss on their home floor six days ago. We look for the Nets to continue to demonstrate the professional pride that one expects from ageing superstars the likes of Kevin Garnett and Joe Johnson, and to play hard. We estimate that such effort is adequate to hold the margin down to single digits.
Happy betting!!