Boston Celtics +8 (-117) at Utah Jazz
The simulation programs we employ see the Jazz collecting a win this evening when the Celtics travel to EnergySolutions Arena this evening, however, by a smaller margin than the betting line indicates. The computers make Utah to be 2-4 points better, not 7 or 8, as the betting line currently suggests.
Our power-rankings based work also anticipates that Boston will cover the spread tonight. However, this factor has Boston winning outright by about three points.
Our system's aggregate outlook for the Celts at the Jazz, as well as for every other game on today's NBA schedule is illustrated below (the following table was constructed before the contests in Brooklyn and New York City were postponed due to inclement weather, and before a line for the Wolves at the Thunder was published).
Boston played the league-leading Golden State Warriors tough for much of last night's game, before ultimately succumbing in the waning minutes. In spite of the three point loss though, the Celtics got the win versus the number, as Golden State was favored by 18. The Green have quietly strung together four consecutive wins against the spread, and are 7-3 ATS in their last ten out. Further, Boston is 5-1-1 against the betting line in recent meetings with Utah.
Coming into the season, the Celtics were the fourth youngest team in the league (when player age is weighted by expected minutes played). Conventional wisdom is that back-to-backs do not meaningfully impact performance of young teams. The Celtics 7-2 record in their last nine games on zero days rest supports this thesis.
Utah's frontcourt is imposing and formidable, and the Jazz have won their last two games both straight up and against the spread. However, Utah is a meager 9-11 ATS at EnergySolutions Arena. Their failures include recent home losses ATS versus the Pacers and the Timberwolves.
We expect the yeoman's effort versus the Warriors last night to invigorate the young Celtic squad, and are betting that Boston will improve on their 13-7 spread record away from TD Garden.
Happy betting!!