Denver Nuggets +11.5 (-125) at Memphis Grizzlies
The Denver Nuggets are scheduled to face the Grizzlies at FedExForum tonight. The Nuggets will enter this evening’s matchup on a high, considering that they bumped off the Pelicans at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans just last night. Broadly, Denver is 5-1-1 against-the-spread in their last seven road games, and is 3-0-1 of late following a victory versus the number.
The Memphis Grizzlies 33-12 record is good for second in the West and third best in the NBA. Memphis has won their last four games outright and are eight of their last ten straight up. However, prior to the win in Dallas two days ago, the Grizz had dropped their last four ATS.
Computer simulations give Memphis a 5-6 point advantage this evening, suggesting strong value to backers of the Nuggets +11.5. The sim work assumes Grizzlies' starting Point Guard, Mike Conley, will not go this evening (Conley is listed as questionable as of the time of this writing).
Our quantitative work (which is based on power rankings) makes the Grizzlies to be almost eight point favorites. This approach though, does not consider factors like injuries and personnel changes. Some crude math, based on ESPN's Real Plus Minus statistic hints that Conley's absence might be expected, on average, to sap almost six points from Memphis' advantage (or add almost six points to their disadvantage). [Recall that Real Plus Minus (RPM) estimates how many points a player adds or subtracts, on average, to his team's net scoring margin for each 100 possessions played.]
The table below makes the admittedly overly simplistic assumption that, if Conley is, in fact, unavailable today, Grizzlies first backup Point Guard, Beno Udrih, will see his minutes increase to match the missing starters. Similarly, third stringer, Nick Calathes, is assumed to inherit Udrih's average playing time. By extension, Russ Smith, at the end of the Grizzlies bench, is assumed to play as many minutes as Calathes typically does. Thus, the total minutes from the Point Guard position is held constant, in spite of Conley's presumed absence.
Since, by its very definition, RPM is calibrated to measure point differentials per 100 offensive and defensive possessions, and since Memphis at home and Denver away average 197 combined possessions per game, the factor 1.97 (197/100) is applied above to convert RPM's into full game measures.
Moreover, as it is rare that a player be left on the floor for a full 48 minutes, RPM in the preceding table is also adjusted by the proportion of the game a player actually plays, on average.
Applying the RPM-implied adjustment to our dumb, power rankings-based spread indication hints that Memphis might find themselves in a dogfight this evening. The raw (or unadjusted) number made the Grizzlies 6.4 point favorites. Subtracting 5.8 from that level to account for Conley's loss makes this game a virutal toss up.
Thus, all three of the factors that underpin the core of our approach independently signal significant value siding with Denver. Further, an alternate approach whereby we adjust the one factor that is immune to personnel changes to assume that Conley is out also highlights the road, dogs this evening. As such, we are betting the Denver Nuggets to cover.
Happy betting!!