Miami Heat +3.5 (-118) at Minnesota Timberwolves
As four point road underdogs, the Miami Heat suffered a solid beating at the hands of the Detroit Pistons last night. Nonetheless, the Heat must regroup quickly, as yesterday's contest was only game two of their current four-game road stand, and the Timberwolves are waiting tonight.
As is illustrated below, our approach indeed calls for Miami to rebound this evening. The simulation component sees the Heat securing the win by a 4-6 point margin, while the quant aspect anticipates a double-digit Miami victory.
Chris Bosch was one of few bright spots for Miami yesterday. The 12th year Center did his part to keep the Heat in the hunt, posting 34 points, on 14-23 from the field. Similarly, backup Center, Hassan Whiteside, chipped in 11 points, 10 boards and 5 blocks. In the end though, the Miami bigs did not get adeqaute assistance from the remainder of the roster to give them a real shot at covering.
Our adopted power-rankings approach makes Minnesota more than five points worse than Detroit when playing at home. In fact, we think the Wolves as the worst team in the league on their home court. Thus, Miami is likely to have an easier out tonight. Further, Bosch, a perrenial all-star, is likely to take exception to the way Miami was handled yesterday. I expect him to muster above-average output yet again.
As for the Timberwolves, Ricky Rubio's return to the Minnesota lineup Monday did not interrupt their skid. Including the most recent loss at Dallas, the Wolves have dropped three in a row and eight of their last 10 overall. Minnesota is also 1-9 at the Target Center of late.
ESPN's Real Plus Minus suggests Rubio's on-court presence shrinks Minnesota's disadvantage by one point per 100 (offensive and defensive) possessions. We adjust this figure to account for the the number of possessions expected tonight given the tendencies of these particular teams, and Rubio's (as well as the other Minnesota Guards) expected playing time. By our math, Rubio's re-insertion should narrow the spread by about a point -- not nearly enough to alter the expected outcome against the spread.
Bottom line: Our work says the Heat are meaningfully better than the Wolves, even with Dwayne Wade out with a his bum hamstring. Further, given the disappointing loss handed to Miami last night, we see this evening's inferior competition as an opportunity for the Heat to restore some confidence. We would probably bet Miami if this game were rated a pick, so receiving points in this spot is icing on the cake.
Happy betting!!