So far, our Real Plus Minus-based power ratings framework continues to translate profitably into against the spread picks. This model went 4-0 yesterday on its official plays (see here for yesterday's picks). Additionally though, we highlighted three contingent plays that were to become effective if the betting line moved to specific levels. Each was activated, and these plays too turned a profit (2-1). Thus we continue to find encouragement in this approach.
For today, there are six NBA games scheduled. The model is emitting strong signals for the following four:
Boston Celtics +5.0 @ Brooklyn Nets,
Charlotte Hornets +6.5 @ Chicago Bulls,
Utah Jazz -10.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves,
Golden State Warriors -11 (-118) vs Washington Wizards
Injury's Impact:
The Celt's starting Point Guard, Isaiah Thomas, will reportedly miss his sixth consecutive game this evening when Boston travels to the Brooklyn Nets, due to an ailing back. However, we expect his absence is baked into the numbers, as Thomas' injuries were sustained prior to the March 16 reset of the RPM-based power ratings.
The Jazz's Gordon Hayward is reportedly questionable for tonight's action at the Minnesota Timberwolves. His omission from Utah's lineup would be quite meaningful. If Hayward can not go, assuming Jeremy Evans inherits most of the vacated minutes, and based on the average number of possessions for Utah at home and Minnestoa away, season long RPM's imply the Jazz's advantage over a healthy Wolves squad slips by more than 7 points.
However, Minnesota is not healthy, as Nikola Pekovic's ankle has him sidelined indefinitely, and Ricky Rubio is doubtful for tonight (also owing to a bad ankle). Pekovic's absence is probably accounted for, as he had missed several games heading into the last recalibration of the numbers. We think that Rubio's inability to go poses more of a shock to the system though. In adjusting for this perspective, we consider that the likely beneficiary of Rubio's foregone playing time is Zach Lavine, who sports a -3.00 RPM for the current season (Chase Buddinger, whose RPM is -6.17, and Gary Neal, with a -4.42 RPM, are also likley to see a bit of a pickup in their utilization rates). Accordingly, sitting Rubio costs the Timberwolves almost 10 spread points, by our math -- eclipsing the 7 margin points they gain if Hayward misses the game, and supporting the system's bias toward Utah. Of course, if Hayward plays and Rubio does not (a distinct possibility), the Jazz's edge swells significantly.
Additionally, Golden State Warriors sharpshooter, Klay Thompson, missed three games after spraining an ankle during the tightly contested battle with the Lakers on March 16. Thompson is listed as probable for today though.
Happy betting!!