Our four NBA betting picks for Monday split. The Celtics and the Warriors covered with ease, while the Hornets and Jazz both lost outright and failed to beat the number. Looking ahead to Tuesday, our power ratings system, based on ESPN's Real Plus Minus statistic, recommends plays on four of the six scheduled games.
Detroit Pistons +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors
Detroit will enter Tuesday's action at the Toronto Raptors on a two-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread, but they are 3-7 absolutely and 5-5 versus the number in their last 10 out. The Raptors are a similarly lowly 4-6 straight up and 3-7 ATS of late, but have won 4 of their last 6 outright.
Raptors starting PG, Kyle Lowry, is listed as questionable, while Pistons PF, Greg Monroe, will miss tonight’s contest.
Our call for the Pistons to cover is predicated on the expectation that Lowry will not suit up this evening. In our estimation, Lowry’s +4.83 whole-season RPM translates to a spread change in excess of 9 points in the event he is sidelined (based 2014-15 season RPM’s calculated by ESPN, Toronto’s average number of possessions away and Detroit’s at home, and the assumption that Lowry’s forgone minutes will be distributed among Vasquez, Williams and Fields).
Dallas Mavericks +2.5 vs San Antonio Spurs
We expect both Dallas and San Antonio to bring their A-games when they meet at the Mavs' American Airlines Center Tuesday. The Spurs currently hold a one-game lead over Dallas for the 6th playoff berth in the Western Conference, and we are sure the potential post-season implications will not be lost on either team tonight.
The champion Spurs seem to have caught their stride recently, as San Antonio is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread so far in March. The Mavericks, on the other hand, have lost back-to-back games and have dropped their last 5 against the betting line.
Dallas though has not suffered a streak of more than five losses versus the number all season long. Thus, Tuesday's contest appears an ideal spot for the model to call for a turnaround.
Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Sacramento Kings
In winning its last two games, Sacramento is attempting to right-foot itself after dropping eight of their previous nine.
Demarcus Cousins returned to the Kings' lineup on Sunday, and chipped in 20 points en route to a dominating performance over the Wizards. However, the Kings have played terribly versus the number this season when cast as the favorite, Sac is 7-16 when Vegas expects them to win, and are 2-7 when the spread is -5 or wider.
Philly, in contrast, is a respectable 15-14 when underdogs of between 7 and 10 points. Further, the Sixers are 3-3 straight up and ATS in their last 6 out.
Our simulation work, which also sees the 76ers beating the number, anticpates that Philly's key to keeping the game reasonably close will be efficiency beyond the arc -- we are looking for Isaiah Canaan and Robert Covington to be good from deep this evening.
MIlwaukee Bucks +1.5 vs Miami Heat
The battle between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks potentially features the NBA's Eastern Conference's 7th and 6th playoff seeds. We expect a tightly contested game among reasonably even teams. In the end though, we give the edge to the home team.
In their biggest skid of the season, Milwaukee has dropped six in a row straight up. Further, the Bucks are 0-2-1 against the number recently. However, Milwaukee faced very formidable competition in those two losses (namely, the Spurs and the Cavaliers). Prior to losing to these contenders at BMO Harris Bradley Center though, the Bucks rattled off a six-game home winning streak. Thus, we think that a mid-tier squad travelling through Milwaukee might be just what the doctor ordered to help fortify the Bucks post-season ambitions.
The Heat took a smacking from Oklahoma CIty Sunday night, but are 3-2 (straight up and ATS) in the five preceding games, including upset victories over the Blazers and the Cavaliers. As such, Miami definitely seems to be playing the better ball of the two teams these days. However, given their similar aggregate ratings, and that the Bucks own the home court advantage tonight, we will heed the model's output and side with Milwaukee to cover.
Happy betting!!