Sacramento Kings +8.5 @ Phoenix Suns
Sacramento enjoyed a come-from-behind, one-point win over the Philadelphia 76ers at Sleep Train Arena Tuesday. In spite of a poor shooting night, Kings Center, DeMarcus Cousins was the star of the evening, recording 33 points and 17 rebounds. However, before the jubilation of stealing a game evaporated, the Kings were headed to Phoenix to prepare for the Suns on Wednesday evening.
The Kings' trip to the desert will mark the fourth and final game of this head-to-head series. Sacramento won two of the first three meetings between these clubs this year (both from the underdog position), with the one loss occurring while Cousins was inactive. In fact, DeMarcus was a dominant figure in the two victories, leading all scorers with 25 and 18 in one game, and hitting the go ahead bucket to ice the other.
The Kings will be gunning to take the series Wednesday, and looking to extend their three-game win streak. Phoenix too is on roll though, having won their last 4, and 7 of their last ten--including quaity wins (and covers) versus Dallas and Houston.
Our Real Plus/Minus-based power ratings give Sacramento a slight edge at +8.5 points. The model has been quite proficient calling both games with similar implied value propositions and games in which the Kings or Suns were involved. This pick is corroborated though by our logistic regression model, which includes as inputs two independent simulation routines, a (different) power rankings based estimator, a composite of the three factors, and closing spreads. Unanimous picks from these two systems have better than a 59% win rate (in 98 games).
Happy betting!!