LA Clippers -12.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers
The Clippers have strung together five consecutive wins, and look to be firing on something close to all cyclinders these days. While bench scorer extraordinaire, Jamal Crawford, is out indefinitely due to a calf injury, premier Power Forward, Blake Griffin is back in action after undergoing a surgical procedure on his elbow. Griffin is starting to look like his (dominant) old self.
We were impressed by the way the Clippers handled the Knicks as 15-point favorites (covering decisively in a 111-80 win), and anticipate a similar showing this evening versus another bottom of the barrel team. The Sixers are 5-5 straight up in their last ten out, and 6-4 versus the number. This is to say that they have played respectably this month. However, the talent differential is huge tonight -- on both sides of the ball, and the Clippers seem resolved to continue to round into playoff form.
Additionally, the 76ers starting PF, Luc Mbah a Moute, is listed as questionable. Mbah a Moute sports an RPM of -1.08, which suggests that his absence might actually be good for the Sixers spread. However, Philly's backup players at this position, Thomas Robinson and Furkan Aldemir, have earned more negative RPM ratings than Mbah a Moute. Thus, all things considered, we estimate that personnel shift at the Power Forward position, if necessary, cost Philadelphia another two spread points.
Bottom line: Our Real Plus/Minus-based power ratings work makes the Clippers about 15 points better than Philly, but the impact of injury might push the number out to the 17 ballpark. Whether Mbah a Moute plays or not though, we are comfortable laying the big chalk and siding with a resurgent Clippers unit tonight.
Happy betting!!