New York Knicks +17.0 @ Chicago Bulls
Chicago got their starting Shooting Guard, and most improved player candidate, Jimmy Butler, back on Monday, and are 2-0 since.
Tonight the Bulls welcome a Knicks team to the United Center, that is dead last in our power ratings scheme. New York has lost their last six games in a row, and eight of their last ten. As such, we are quite confident that Chicago will win straight up.
However, 17 points is a big number to lay in the NBA -- both generally speaking and for Chicago in particular. Per data compiled by AccuScore, of the 1,085 games in the books for the 2014-2015 NBA season, there have been only 11 instances where the closing spead was ≥ 17 points. The favorite covered in four cases. Further, the Bulls have been pitted as double digits favorites 13 times this year, but have beat the number only three times fro mthis spot. And tonight's spread of -17 represents the biggest chalk the Bulls have had to lay all year.
Against this backdrop, we are comfortable siding with our Real Plus/Minus-based power ratings approach, which gives the Knicks a slight edge versus the number.
Happy betting!!