Indiana Pacers -135 vs Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are 6-5 in March straight up, but have covered in only three of 11 games this month. Despite the lackluster showing of late though, Dallas maintains a four-game edge over the Thunder for the #7 spot in the Western Conference playoffs.
Contrarily, Indiana's post-season prospects are much less certain. The Pacers are currently one game behind the Celtics and Nets (who are tied for the #8 spot in the East). We thus expect spirited play from Indiana, as their post-season hangs in the balance.
There are limits, however, to the talent differentials that spirit alone can overcome. To this point, our Real Plus/Minus-based power rankings for this week cast the Mavs in the #9 spot, and the Pacers seven slots below. This disparity translates to Dallas being 2.8 points better than Indiana on a neutral court.
Tonight's contest, hosted at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, is in Pacer's backyard rather than on neutral terrain. As such, we estimate that the Mavericks' advantage slips to less than one point.
However, Monte Ellis took a knee to the calf in San Antonio two days ago, and has been ruled out of tonight's action. Ellis owns an RPM of +1.49. Assuming Devin Harris and Raymond Felton will replace Ellis, lineup changes are expected to cost Dallas more than three spread points. After adjusting our original estimate of Dallas -0.5 to account for the personnel shake-up, we favor Indiana by 2.5 points.
The risk, in our estimation though, is that Indiana wins by more than 2 or 3 points. With only two true Shooting Guards on the roster, and with J.J. Barea out, the Mavericks are stretched at the Guard position, which could result in higher than average turnovers and difficulty in setting up the offense.
Take the Pacers on the moneyline.
Happy betting!!