Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets -3 (-130)
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
September 13, 2015, 1:00pm EST
In week 1 of the NFL's regular season, the Cleveland Browns travel to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey to meet the New York Football Jets. Our go-to power rankings approach pits Cleveland at #27 and the Jets a mere two slots higher. So this game might boast marginally higher entertainment value than say, the #31 Tennessee Titans at the #29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but there is no other contest on the week 1 calendar that features two lower ranked teams. This is to say that a shoot out in New Jersey is highly unlikely Sunday (both teams sport bottom-of-the-barrel offenses and above average defenses).
In spite of the expected lack of sizzle for this contest, ESPN's NFL Football Power Index identifies this matchup as being mispriced. After adjusting for home field advantage, we think the Jets are 4.5 points better than the Browns coming into week 1, versus the betting line of -3.
Similarly, our favorite third-party simulation package makes the Jets about 6 point favorites over the Browns Sunday.
Vegas Insider reports that the spread opened at Jets -1. Just prior to the news that Geno Smith would be sidelined with two fractures to his jaw, the spread swelled to -3.5. News of Smith's absence settled the number back down to -3.
Such favorable line movement for New York adds a layer of validation to our pro-Jets bias, as several empirical studies -- i.e. Avery & Chevalier (1999), Boulier & Stekler (2003), Dare, et al (2005), Xu (2013), etc. -- find evidence that closing betting lines tend to serve as unbiased estimators of actual results.
(SportsInsights likewise indicate favorable spread movement for the Jets, from an opening line of -2 to the current -3).
Bottom line: Our preferred power rankings methodology, the more accurate sim routine in our stable and the market itself all point to New York covering the -3 spread versus the Browns Sunday. We are wagering accordingly.
Happy betting!!