Chicago Bears+16.0 (-120) @ Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
September 27, 2015, 10am PDT
Chicago will face Seattle as somewhere around 14 point underdogs when Bears visit the Seahawks Sunday morning. The opening chalk for this game represents the largest spread of the still-young 2015 NFL season. Of interest, per TeamRankings' database, since 2003, favorites of two touchdowns or more have struggled versus the number, This cohort is a dismal 38-50-1 ATS. Further, with a spread record of 31-42-2, home teams cast as big favorites have fared slightly worse from this spot than the aggregate numbers suggest. Thus the big picture backdrop is not encouraging for Seattle.
Further, per SportsInsights, public spread bets are skewed dramatically in Seattle's favor. As we have pointed out on several occasions, research suggests that extremes in sentiment are often contrarian signals in sports betting. As such, we regard public opinion as supportive of our play on the big dog.
Additionally, the tightening too spread (from Seattle -16 to -15.5) favors the Bears, as the closing betting line has been empirically demonstrated (repeatedly) to serve as an unbiased estimator of actual game outcomes.
Our preferred power rankings approach estimates the difference between these two underachieving teams tomorrow will be a TD. Alternate measures, such as Elo Ratings or TeamRankings power rankings construct, give the Seahawks a more substantial advantage (Elo, for instance, says Seattle will be 12.8 points superior to Chicago tomorrow), but still endorse the idea of a Bears cover. All told, our power rankings composite implies a line of 11.9 -- well shy of 16.
Similarly, the simulation component of our model calls for a Seahawks win by 10.5-14 points.
Bottom line: As indicated by the reasonably uniform message from the tools in our chest (one tertiary computer prediction model gives the prospect of a Seahawks cover a 0.7 point margin; all other gauges favor the Bears versus the line), the stars look reasonably well-aligned in support of Chicago picking up their first cover of the season. Take the massive road dogs and the points here.
Happy betting!!