Carolina Panthers +7.5 (-135) @ Seattle Seahawks o40.5 (-110)
Each of the four independent factors in our power rankings composite individually highlights value to Panthers backers. In aggregate, this approach suggests the betting line is over-inflated by about a field goal. Two of the three simulation/computer prediction models in our lineup likewise anticipate a cover for the road dogs.
In our estimation, both the betting line and and the total underestimate the 4-0 Panthers. Carolina is the 6th most productive offense in the NFL (as measured by points) and has not posted less than 20 points this season. Further, it can be argued that the Panthers are improving each week, as in each of their games Carolina has managed more points than they did the week before (against defenses with varying levels of proficiency defending the Panthers' bread-and-butter running game).
We think Carolina's offense is good enough to keep today's contest within a touchdown -- even against Seattle's #9 rated rush defense. We also expect the Panthers to record enough points to push the total above the depressed o/u line at 40.5 (40.5 falls within the 5th percentile of NFL total lines observed this season).
San Deigo Chargers +11.5 (-125) @ Green Bay Packers u51.0 (-110)
We see 11.5 as too much chalk to expect the Packers to cover. While Green Bay has beaten its last two opponents by 14 points each, the St. Louis Rams and the San Francisco 49ers represent the league's 29th and 30th offenses. Expect Philip Rivers and the Chargers, the NFL's 10th best offense, to put up more of a fight than the Packers' rivals in weeks 4 and 5. We look for the difference in offensive output to amount to about a touchdown (Green Bay's favor) when all is said and done.
While we do expect more back-and-forth than we have seen in Green Bay games over the last couple of weeks, 51 is an extreme number, ranking in the 95th percentile of observed totals. Our totals work calls for a final of 19-29, Packers, and thus favors teh Chargers to cover and the under.
Baltmore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers u44.0 (-110)
The 49ers have the worst passing offense in the league by our preferred advanced statistic. At #24, the Ravens are a bit better -- but still decidedly bad. With neither team a threat to go deep, a lower scoring affair appears probable. Our simulation and computer prediction-based models see the UNDER as the play. We are looking for something around 21-20 Ravens.
Happy betting!!