Buffalo Bills -4.0 (-110) [UPGRADED -3.0 (-135)] @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 25, 2:30pm GMT+1
Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Last week, the third year QB out of Florida State, E.J. Manuel, started for the Bills in Tyrod Taylor's stead (Taylor is hampered by a bad knee). Buffalo played host to the Cincinnati Bengals in week 6, and Manuel managed 285 total yards in his first start of the year, including 1 passing touchdown, 1 rushing TD and 1 interception. The effort earned the replacement QB an above average Total QBR rating of 56.9 and the 18th spot in the week 6 Total QBR hierarchy.
However, the high-octane offense of the #7 rated Cincinnati Bengals (per FPI) proved too much for Buffalo. The Bengals Andy Dalton was the fourth best quarterback in the NFL last week by Total QBR and the Cincy offense was 2nd best in the league per Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA. The Bengals ran away in the 3rd quarter, with 14 unanswered points, and the Bills ultimately fell 34-21.
Taylor has been ruled out for week 7 and Manuel will again get the start for Buffalo when the Jaguars host the Bills in the NFL's second regular season game in the U.K.. Fortunately for Buffalo backers, Jacksonville is no Cincinnati. While the Jags sport the sixth best rush defense in the league based on DVOA, Jacksonville is #31 guarding the pass and #27 in overall defense. The Jaguars' shortcomings against the ball should play into Buffalo's hand, as the Bills appear more pass-reliant with Manuel at the helm (about 66% of plays called and 70% of total yards gained traced to the passing game vs full season averages of 53% and 63% respectively).
Like the Bills of late, the Jaguars too are a pass-first team, ranking #4 in passing play percentage and #9 in passing yards percentage this year. However, Jacksonville boasts only about average proficiency through the air (as indicated by their #17 DVOA-based pass ranking). Making their task that much more difficult, the Jags will face the league's 10th best pass defense Sunday.
While the Bills have been consistently inconsistent overall this season (i.e. no two-game or more win streak, but no two game or more losing streak; just an unwavering win/cover one, lose one pattern), Buffalo has handled the lower ranked teams they have faced -- like the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins. Buffalo won straight up and beat the number in these games. We expect that a meeting with the #31 ranked Jacksonville Jaguars in week 7, on a neutral field mind you, is the ideal setup to propagate the continuation of the seesaw, win/cover-loss sequence that has characterized Buffalo's season to date (after last week's defeat at the hands of the Bengals, a win/cover is due).
Our expectation for the Bills to beat the spread is well supported by the numbers. Of the nine factors we are monitoring for this contest, eight support our play, including each of four power rankings-based approaches, a logistic regression model and two of three simulation/computer prediction generated lines. We are betting accordingly: laying 4 (at 5Dimes) and backing the Bills.
Happy betting!