Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions +3.0 (-125)
Sunday, October 25, 1:00pm EDT
Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
The Lions claimed their first win of the season when they edged past the Chicago Bears 37-34 in last week's shootout at Ford Field. We expect that, after having been reminded of the sweet taste of victory, Detroit will be eager for seconds when they as finish a two game home stand as hosts to the 3-2 Minnesota Vikings this Sunday.
The Lions' Matt Stafford was the NFL's #5 QB in week 6 as measured by Total QBR, with a 400+ yard performance that included 4 touchdowns to just 1 interception. Similarly, Calvin Johnson was the NFL's second most prolific Receiver with 166 yards and a TD on a mere six receptions.
It definitely helped that the Detroit offense, which, in an already pass-dominant league, is more skewed toward the aerial attack than any other NFL team, lined up against the #27 ranked pass defense in the league. But we still regard last week's play as more of an indication of what the Lions' are at their best, rather than an outlier stint of over-achievement.
Fortunately for Detroit backers, Minnesota's scoring capacity pales in comparison to the fire power wielded by the Cutler-led Bears. By Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, Teddy Bridgewater ranks #29 among qualified QBs. Of note, our other favorite advanced stat for measuring quarterback performance, Total QBR, lists the Minnesota starter much higher -- at #8. We struggle to understand this conclusion though, as the Vikes are 29th in scoring this year, last in passing yards, 31st in yards per completion and last in passing touchdown percentage.
As an offset to their well documented lack of passing prowess, the Vikings rush game, with Adrian Peterson as the cornerstone, is top-ten (while the Lions are #24th defending the rush by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). However, consistent with Minnesota's lackluster record, statistical analysis has found that running ability is far less important in predicting wins than is passing efficiency. Thus we we are comfortable siding with the potentially explosive passing team.
Our preferred power rankings approaches rate the Vikings meaningfully higher than the Lions (#19/#13 versus #24/#25 by FPI and Elo Ratings, respectively). However, the difference, when translated into expected scoring differential, amounts to less than the our standard optimized factor for the value of the Lions home field advantage. In fact, each of the four power rankings approaches we consider advocates for a Lions cover, with three models calling for Detroit to win outright.
In our estimation, a successful week 7 outing for the Lions entails moving the ball through the air effectively AND winning the turnover battle. With a turnover margin of -1.3 per game, the Lions are worst in the league in this area. However, Detroit has historically elevated their play at Ford Field (even if not so much this year). BoydsBets, for instance, estimates that the Lions long-term true home field advantage, which they base on the difference between points scored at home and on the road since 1980) is third best in the NFL.
Similarly, TeamRankings Home Field Advantage Rankings pit Detroit at #4 for the 2014 season. TeamRankings' sort for this year though makes the Motor City boys bottom quartile by this metric. Nonetheless our work suggests Detroit, motivated by a desire to salvage their season, and armed with a capable QB and superstar Wide Receiver, will be up to the task Sunday.
In the five meetings between these teams since 2013, Minnesota has demonstrated a modest edge against the number, amassing an ATS record of 3 W's and 2 L's, including a win and cover as 2.5 point favorites in Minneapolis in week 2. The Lions split the two contests where they were cast as the underdog.
Taking the home dogs.
Happy betting!!