Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos -3.5 (-140)
Sunday, November 1, 5:30pm MST
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
All but one input in our multi-factor handicapping model point to the Broncos remaining undefeated and the Packers record becoming slightly blemished after Sunday Night Football's matchup between these two of the five remaining zero-loss NFL teams.
Our power rankings composite anticipates the Broncos winning by 3, while our simulation/computer prediction work calls for Denver by 5. In fact, of our nine factor lineup, only one gauge disagrees, with a forecast for a Denver loss by about 4. Thus, as far as we are concerned, our play on the Broncos is amply supported by the numbers.
These teams have faced each other only twice since 2007. Green Bay covered both times.
VegasInsider reports that the line for this contest opened Packers -3.0, but as kick off approaches the number has tightened to -2.5. Thus, the spread has moved a half point our way. Interestingly, this line value has been realized against a backdrop of broad public support for Green Bay. SportsInsights, for instance, indicates that 73% of public spread bets have flowed the Packers way. Together these events constitute a reverse line movement, which might imply that sharp money is following Denver.
Happy betting!!