Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers o44.5 (-127)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
November 2, 2015 8:30pm EST
In stark contrast to the their output in their first two outings this season, where Indy mustered only 21 points combined, the Colts have averaged better than 25 points per game over the last five weeks -- inlcuding 35 facing the Tennessee Titans' 9th ranked defense (by DVOA), and 27 points against the Patriots D, which ranks #11 by DVOA.
On the other hand, Cam Newton and the 6-0 Carolina Panthers routinely posts 27 points per game (in fact, Carolina has registered exactly 27 points three times in the first six games of this season). We see no reason to anticpiate a letdown in offensive productivity at home this evening against the Colts #22 defense.
Each of the four independent factors that comprise our totals forecasting approach hints that the OVER should pay tonight. Collectively, our quantitative assessment anticipates a final score of 20-27, Panthers. As such, we are comfortable backing the OVER.
SportsInsights reports an opening total of 46, but the number is down to 45.5 at most shops. Further, about 60% of totals wagers favor the OVER.
Separately, per TheFootballLines, these teams have only met twice since 2007. The UNDER covered both times; expect a reversion to the mean tonight.
Happy betting!!