Toronto Raptors (-120) @ Dallas Mavericks
We like the 3-0 Toronto Raptors at the 2-1 Dallas Mavericks this afternoon. Toronto has started strong out the gate this season, beating the number in each of their first three games in addition to winning outright. True, the Raptors have yet to face elite opposition this year, but they have covered the chalk with an average of 9 points to spare, which suggests that Toronto has indeed played above expectations.
Through three games the Raptors rank 4th by points per game and 6th by true shooting percentage. Conversely, Dallas sits much lower in these sorts (15th and 18th respectively). Further, so far in the young season the Mavs are most the most turnover-prone team in the NBA, while the Raptors are 3rd in steals.
In our thinking Toronto's superior offense and Dallas' proclivity to give the ball up make the Raptors the likely victors, depsite their having to contend with a hostile American Airlines Center crowd. Our perspective is well supported by our quantitative approach, as each of the simulation/computer prediction models we track, as well as our preferred power rankings metholodolgy, favor the road team to win.
Per SportsInsights, Dallas opened as 1 point favorites, but the betting line has since been driven to Dallas +1.5, supporting our road team play. Wagering is approximately evenly split, with Toronto garnering 53% of the betting public's support.
Happy betting!!