Buffalo Bills +3.0 (-125) @ New York Jets
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets o42.0 (-105)
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
November 12, 2015, 8:25pm EST
Our primary framework for handicapping NFL sides action, a power rankings-based approach, expects a Jets victory by about 2.2 points when New York plays host to the Buffalo Bills this evening. And while our broader power rankings composite anticipates a home victory with slightly more margin (NYJ -2.8), this measure does not see the Jets besting the spread. Our prediction model work though is more mixed, with one factor giving the Jets an almost 7 point edge, while the other two inputs point to a Bills cover (albeit barely). All in all, we are backing the Bills mainly on favorable indications from the principal factors in our stable, but we draw comfort from modest support from satellite measures.
Our methodology would overwhelmingly endorse Buffalo +3.5, but we are reticent to pay the extra juice (5Dimes is currently offering +3.0 at -140, while the vig on +3.5 is -165), as the only benefit that the additional 25% lay affords is a victory in the event of a push. Granted, between 2010 and 2014, somewhere around 7% of all professional (American) football games ended with the home team winning by 3, however, in our opinion, the price of the hook is simply too rich to justify hedging the modest risk of a tie.
The Bills cover our work expects appears consistent with the idea that Buffalo's offense will give (almost) as good as it receives from the Jets' premier defense. The Bills are solid with the ball, so this does not appear an unreasonable assumption to us. In fact, by DVOA, Buffalo's offense is #8 in the league overall, ranking 11th in passing offense and 3rd in rushing. As another testament to the Bills scoring ability, Buffalo managed 64 points in their last two games.
But the Jets too sport an above average offense. New York ranks 11th overall by DVOA, and is 6th in passing. As such we are betting the OVER in addition to siding with Buffalo to cover. We think that the reputation of the Jets stopping power is overshadowing their capacity to put points on the board. To support the idea that the betting public tends to underestimate the Jets scoring prowess, consider that the OVER is 5-3 in Jets games this season, including a string of 4 consecutive covers in recent weeks. The OVER is also 3-1 in recent games pitting the Jets against the Bills and is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups.
The Bills have been the better team against the number in recent years, covering in each of the last 3 contests against eh Jets as well as 5 of the last 7. Buffalo though is 2-2 most recently at MetLife Stadium.
OddsShark reports an opening line of Buffalo +3.0, but the line has tightened to 2 or 2.5 at most shops -- consistent with our Bills bias. On the other hand, the total opened at 44.5 but has been bid down to 42, representing negative line value forour play. We are unshaken. Taking the points and the OVER.
Happy betting!!