Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 (-120) Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
November 16, 2015, 8:30pm EST
Our broadest composite indicator expects the Bengals to best the Texans by 11.4 points when Houston travels to Paul Brown Stadium tonight. This translates to better than a 58% chance of the home cover, by our accounting.
The power rankings component of our system calls for a Cincy cover with about 3.4 points to spare. However, our simulation/algorithmic work, in aggregate, is less favoraly disposed toward the notion of the Bengals beating the big chalk (this element of our work anticipates a Bengals win by 9.5).
We are siding with CIncinnati though as our primary indicators are synchronized in forecasting the payday for Bengals backers. In fact, at -9.5 points, all but one of the indicators in our stable agree. And, given how common 3 and 7 point margins are in the NFL, we take some psychological comfort from laying less than the key 10 level.
Pay up for the reduced chalk and take the better team to win at home against the spread.
Happy betting!!