Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars ML (-140)
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
November 19, 2015 5:25pm PST
Our work uniformly points to Jacksonville as the likely victors when the Titans come calling this evening. Our broadest composite indicator calls for a 3.6 point margin, with our power rankings composite estimating a line of JAX -3.6 and our simulation work suggesting a Jags win by 3.5 points. These numbers translate to an estimated 62% chance of the home team winning outright.
Nonetheless we are not convinced a cover is in the cards, as two inputs in our system hint that this contest is likely to be decided (in Jacksonville's favor) by a mere 1-2 points. Further, our logistic regression model suggests only a 45% probability of the cover. As such, we are betting buying the 3 point cushion and betting the Jaguars on the moneyline (-140 available at 5Dimes).
We are not looking for a prolific showing from the Titans #28 ranked passing offense, however, the Jaguars' D is susceptible to giving up yards through the air (the Jaguars rank dead last in the league at defending the pass). As an potential offset to this vulnerability though, Tennessee throws more interceptions than 23 NFL teams, so any progress the Titans make aerially might be quickly reversed by a single errant throw. Further, as Jacksonville is 2nd in the league in guarding against the run, the Titans are likely to be forced into throwing the ball -- increasing the possibility of a pick.
The betting line opened at the Jaguars -3 on Monday, and remains there still -- despite the public lining up solidly alongside the favorite (per SportsInsights, 60% of wagers against the spread support the Jags).
Also, since 2010 Jacksonville has gotten the better of the head-to-head series by a wide margin. The Jaguars are 7-2-1 ATS over this timeframe, including 3-1-1 at home. We see no reason to bet on a reversal of fortunes this evening.
Bottom line: Given the less than ideal choice between two approximately equally bad teams (as both squads are 4.1 points below an average team on a neutral field, per FPI), we are siding with home field and the momentum. Take the Jaguars to win.
Happy betting!!