Phoenix Suns ML (-125) @ Denver Nuggets
Phoenix Suns ML @ Denver Nuggets u 207.0
Our preferred power rankings approach makes Phoenix almost 6 points better than Denver on a neutral court. As such, by this approach, even after accounting for tonight's game taking place at the Pepsi Center, we still expect the Suns to claim the win with about 3 points to spare. Our simulation work likewise anticipates that the road team will leave with the 'W'. The three inputs into our methodology that fall into this category forecast a Suns win by 1-3.
While our system is not pounding the table on the prospect of a Suns cover, all factors in our stable uniformly suggest a Phoenix win is the most likely outcome. Thus, we are comfortable backing the Suns on the moneyline (we got -125 at 5Dimes this morning -- this is the vig we will use to grade our wager; however, the current juice is likely in the -140 ballpark).
Looking back over about the last two years, the Suns have notched a remarkable 7-1 record both straight up and versus the number in the last 8 matchups against the Nuggets. This sequence includes a 3-0 run in games in played in Colorado, and a 6-0 stretch when Phoenix has been favored. We expect more of the same this evening.
In addition to betting on Phoenix to win, we also like the under tonight. Las Vegas lines imply a total score of 105-102, Phoenix, but our work suggests both teams will disappoint slightly on offense. Our composite points to a total of about 103-101, with a range of 199-206.
As measured by True Shooting Percentage and Opponents True Shooting Percentage, Phoenix is about average on defense, while Denver is below average on offense. As such, we would not be surprised to see the Nuggets productivity sputter more than that of the Suns.
Also, at less than 100 per game, Denver averages almost 4 possessions less than the Phoenix. The Nuggets' slower pace likewise supports the under as Phoenix's defense will typically have more time to set before a shot is attempted.
The four head-to-head matchups between the Nuggets and Suns in 2014 all went over the total. However, the under has prevailed in the two 2015 meetings between these teams. Our interpretation of the numbers point to a continuation of the more recent trend.
Take the stronger team and the under
Happy betting!!