Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors u202.0 (-105)
The Jazz face the Warriors at Oracle Arena Monday evening in the first of four scheduled meetings between these teams. The over is 9-9 in Warriors games, including covers in their last two out, as well as in 5 of Golden State's last 7 (though we caught the total at the high end of Friday's range and, as a result, were able to eke out a cover backing the under). On the other hand, Utah has been an under machine, allowing the over to collect in only 4 of their 15 games this year.
We endorse the under primarily on the basis of our quantitative assessment, which is rooted in computer simulation and predictive algorithms. Our system forecasts a combined total of about 200, with individual factor estimates ranging from 196 to 201).
Additionally, we observe contextual support for the under. For instnace, both the Warriors and the Jazz are stalwarts on defense, ranking 6th and 7th respectively in the league by defensive efficiency. Also consistent with the idea of a relatively low scoring affair Monday, Utah ranks 3rd in points allowed and 29th in points scored.
Importantly, at least part of the Jazz's anemic offensive output owes to pace rather than inefficiency. Utah's clock-chewing style of play produces among the fewest number of possessions in the NBA, which results in lower numbers of attempted field goals, as well as reduced time for the opposition to score. Expect Utah's deliberate style to moderate Golden State's run-and-gun character this evening.
Golden State posted its highest and fifth highest team totals of the season in its last two games, and the aggregate score in both contests exceeded the betting total line. The over has covered in back-to-back Warriors games on three separate occasions; the under covered after each. As such, a breather appears a reasonable expectation for the Warriors offense Monday.
Also, Utah's plodding offensive style and stifling defense will probably combine to limit opportunities for Golden State, and, in return, the Warriors D is likely to hinder the Jazz's ability to register points. In addition to the firm indications from our totals prediction methodology, we like the for these reasons.
Bite the bullet, play the under from this spot on the most prolific offense in the league.
Happy betting!!