We suffered a tough day at the office last Sunday, as our against-the spread-picks went 4-5-1 and our totals plays were 3-5, for a combined 7-9-1 day. We did manage to nail the Thursday Night Football, and we passed on Monday Night Football. As such our aggregate record last week was 8-9-1, and we are 66-51-4 cumulatively this season (ATS picks are 45-34-3 this year, and our once-blistering totals selections have slipped to 21-17-1).
The sub-par outcomes we produced last week were well dispersed. We essentially fared no better picking favorites against the spread than we did underdogs. There was likewise no discernible pattern of note regarding our misses in the totals arena. As no particular point of concern emerged from our look back over the week that was, and our profitability on the week was acceptably negative, we are chalking up last week's performance to chance.
Moving on, this week we are segregating our plays into two tranches. The first grouping just below represents our highest conviction wagers. These plays are substantially validated by our methodology, oftentimes having unanimous support from our stable of indicators.
For the lower (italicized) set of games, our primary, power rankings-based, factors agree on the outcome, but either supplemental support is more scant or injury or other variables impose uncertainty not accounted for in our models.
We bet all listed games, but do so only begrudgingly for the more questionable cohort. Less intrepid bettors might focus only on matchups for which we have greater certitude, or scale down wager sizes on the more speculative plays.
As is our custom, we list the bets we laid, complete with actual vigs paid (in parentheses), as well as our median estimate of where the line should be (in brackets).
Highest Conviction Wagers:
1. Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears -3.0 (-118) [CHI -4.2]
2. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-113) [CIN -4.6]
3. San Deigo Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs -10.0 (-120) [KC-12.2]
4. New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-115) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers [NO +4.1]
5. Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers -7.0 (-130) [CAR -9.5]
6. Indianapolis Colts +2.0 (-102) @ Jacksonville Jaguars [IND -3.5]
7. Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-118) [GB-8.3]
Second Tier Plays:
1. Detroit Lions @ St. Louis Rams +3.5 (-130) [STL +2.6]
2. Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens +11.5 [BAL+7.6]
3. Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos -6.5 (-105) [DEN -7.7]
4. Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos o43.5 (-108) [45.7]
Happy betting!!