Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-105)
Barclays Center, New York, New York
December 14, 2015, 7:30PM EST
We regard Brooklyn as a live dog when the Nets host the Magic this evening. Three of the four independent simulation routines in our lineup anticipate an outright win by the Nets, with a margin of 0-7 points. The fourth system anticiaptes the Nets will barely cover.
Our two preferred power rankings approaches are likewise split over the straight up outcome: one sees the home team winning by a point or so, while the other expects a 2-point Nets loss. Given the strong quantitative support for Brooklyn against the spread, we are comfortable backing the Nets +3.5.
Orlando just enjoyed the best ten-game stretch of the season, amassing six straight up wins and seven covers over this horizon. However, Cleveland undressed Orlando Friday, holding the yuong Magic to 76 points en route to a 35 point victory.
Brooklyn too has been hot of late. The Nets are 5-5 outright over their last ten games overall (impressive indeed, for a team with seven wins in aggregate), and a blistering 8-2 versus the number over this same stretch. Recent Brooklyn highlights include a win over the Rockets and cover versus the Clippers.
In head-to-head play, The Nets were 4-0 against the spread versus the Magic in the 2012-13 season, but Orlando claimed the edge the following year with a 3-1 ATS showing. The Magic maintained that momentum through last year, covering in two of the three scheduled meetings, though Brooklyn took the last contest.
The series has been almost even in New York, with the Nets going 3-2 versus the number at home most recently, and 5-5 over a more extended examination period.
Orlando though has not been favored over the Nets since 2012, thus the Magic find themselves in somewhat unfamiliar territory tonight. Though, in fariness, Orlando is a respectable 4-3 on the season as the favorite. However, six of those seven games took place at Amway Center. It occurs to us that, in expecting the Magic give up points on the road might be asking too much of this Orlando team.
We are backing the Nets +3.5 at home versus the inexperienced Magic squad on the basis of strong indications from our primary handicapping approach. Our work has us on alert for the potential of an upset victory for Brooklyn, but we are content to play for a Nets cover.
Happy betting!!