Detroit Pistons +6.5 (-118) @ Atlanta Hawks (Bet size = 220% of standard)
Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks ML (-240) (Bet size = 288% of standard)
Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
December 23, 2015, 8:00PM EST
Each of the six indicators in our lineup anticipates Pistons +6.5 will cover. But, only one expects Detroit to leave Atlanta with a road win. The combination of a high probability for a Detroit cover and low potential for the outright victory form an ideal setup for a middle play. Betting that Detroit both covers and loses reduces risk relative to merely siding with the Pistons to beat the number (as it is mathematically impossible to lose both bets, so, worst case, gains from one wager offset losses from the other).
At the same time, betting on two outcomes rather than one (in this case) dramatically improves ones' maximum profit -- bookies are willing to pay more to bets tied to two outcomes rather than just one...think parlay).
Based on 5Dimes juice of -118 for Detroit +6.5 and -240 for Atlanta on the Moneyline, the middle we propose is constructed by betting 220% of one's standard bet size on the Pistons plus the points, and 288% of one's typical wager amount on Atlanta to win.
This pair bet will return 408% of a standard bet if only one of the two expected events unfolds (either one). As such, the maximum loss under a worst case scenario is roughly equal to one unit (-220% - 288% + 408% = -100%). However, if the Hawks do in fact win by six or fewer points, as we expect will transpire, the bettor stands to profit 308% of his/her standard bet size (-220% - 288% +408% +408% = +308%).
Happy betting!!