San Diego Chargers +5.5 (-105) @ Oakland Raiders
O.co Coliseum, Oakland, California
December 24, 2015, 5:25PM PST
Our two primary power rankings indicators each call for San Diego to cover, with a couple of points to spare. Supplemental power rankings schemes corroborate this signal, looking for the Raiders to win by 3-4 points. Our computer simulation work dissents though, forecasting a home win by better than a touchdown. However, our power rankings work has been a solid arbiter of such disagreements, so we are comfortable backing the Chargers versus the number.
We regard the Raiders and Chargers as approximately equal teams. For instance, by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) Oakland's offense is 12th in the league while San Diego is 13th. Further, both units sort in the top ten in passing and rank in the bottom tercile running the ball. Also, FiveThirtyEight's rendition of NFL Elo Ratings, which grades teams based solely on final scores and a location consideration, likewise views Oakland and San Diego as virtually indistinguishable -- the Raiders' boast a 2 Elo point advantage over the Chargers, but this translates to a negligible .08 football points.
Given these teams' statistical similarities, home field advantage might decide the straight up outcome this afternoon. Considering that the Raiders are a paltry 2-5 versus the number when playing at O.co Coliseum this season (#27 by TeamRankings.com's home field advantage ratings), we are confident that the value of familiar turf is worth less than 5.5 points to the Raiders.
Oakland does sport a decided advantage over San Diego on defense though, ranking 16th by DVOA, versus the Chargers' 31st. Nonetheless, we do not expect the Raiders' essentially average stopping ability to stifle Philip Rivers, the NFL's 7th best QB by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Average, and the Charger offense.
San Diego has authored three offensive letdowns this season, in which the Chargers managed a meager three points in each. However, those subpar showings came against the best and fourth best defenses in the league. This Raider's defensive unit is likely much less menacing to Rivers and company than that of the Broncos or Chiefs.
Bottom line: We expect Derek Carr and the Raiders offense to post points against the soft D of the Chargers. However, San Diego too is likely to find the groove on offense, as has been their tendency against all but the best defenses. Rivers' advantage over Carr will likely offset the Raiders' defensive superiority today. Take the points and back the road dogs.
Betting trends: The Raiders have dominated the head-to-head series versus the Chargers since 2010, covering eight times in 11 tries, including wins against the number in the last three games. However, the Raiders were underdogs in each of those contests. Oakland has not had to give up points to San Diego since 2003. As such, we think the prevailing favorable trend for the Raiders might not apply to tonight's matchup, and are comfortable backing the Chargers on the road.
The Raiders are coming off a home loss (both straight up and against the spread) to the Green Bay Packers, and have covered only twice in their last six out. On the other hand, as modest favorites, San Diego blew the Dolphins out in week 15 to collect their second consecutive cover. The Chargers are 3-3 versus the number in their last six games, but San Diego's near-term momentum is likely bolstered by the definitive win over Miami last week.
Happy betting!!