Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings u209 (-105)
Sleep Train Arena, Sacramento, California
December 27, 2015, 6:00PM PST
Our simulation work calls for a combined total of around 204 when the Blazers visit the Kings this evening. Specifically, we are looking for Sacramento to disappoint by five relative to the 109 points implied by the betting line.
The UNDER has been prominent where the Kings are involved, covering in 17 of 29 contests this season. Further, Sacramento games have gone UNDER in each of their last six out.
Similarly, the UNDER has had the edge in head-to-head play with Portland, covering in 14 of the 21 games since 2010. Moreover, the UNDER is 7-5 over this same timeframe when the Kings host the Blazers, and 5-2 most recently.
On the other hand, Portland has demonstrated a modest propensity in favor of the OVER, as indicated by their 17-15 O/U record. The OVER is 2-1 in the three Blazers games Lillard has been sidelined.
The current Blazers incrnation is naturally slow-paced, which limits offensive output. With Lillard out though, Portland has been even more deliberate, averaging two fewer possessions per game than with the standout guard in their rotation.
The Blazers valuing the ball is also likely key to a payday for the UNDER, as Sac's opponents commit an average of about 16 turnovers per game. The Kings are 8th in the league by this measure.
Bottom line: Despite the Blazers' slight penchant toward the OVER, the broader bettting trends backdrop supports the UNDER, as does our primary framework. We expect Portland to stick to thier knitting tonight and control the tempo of the game, and to limit their turnovers. Accordingly, we are backing the UNDER.
Happy betting!!