Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans o203 (-105)
Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
January 19, 2016, 5:00PM PST
We forecast a high scoring affair when the Timberwolves visit the Pelicans at Smoothie King Center this evening. Our numbers work predicts a final score in the realm of 101-106, New Orleans (Vegas betting lines imply 99-104). As such, we are siding with the OVER.
The Pelicans are of average offensive proficiency, as measured by True Shooting Percentage, while the Timberwolves are slighly below average. However, these teams each boast below average Opponents' True Shooting Percentage stats, suggesting that defense is more of a battle than offense for both units. This observation fits nicely with our simulation-informed expectation for excess points to be generated from both directions.
Betting trends are mixed. Though the Pelicans' O/U record is 15-25 on the year, the OVER has covered in the last two New Orleans games. On the other hand, the Wolves have exhibited less of an UNDER bias, as indicated by Minnesota's 20-22 record, however the UNDER collected in each of the last two Wolves games.
Moreover, the OVER and UNDER have alternated paydays in the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams (but, if this pattern holds, the OVER is due today).
Happy betting!!
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