Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns +8.5 (-105)
Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
February 19, 2106, 6:30PM PST
The Rockets are 2-9 ATS this season when laying seven point or more -- of note, both covers as big favorites came at the expense of the lowly LA Lakers. The Suns are not the Lakers -- but they are only nominally better (i.e. #27 vs #29, or something like that). This modest differential though is likely enough to garner the cover this evening, in our estimation.
Phoenix has taken the last two games (versus the number) against the Rockets, including a home cover as 7.5 point underdogs just two weeks ago. Houston rattled five ATS wins prior, but -- clearly -- the 2015-16 Rockets are a different animal compared to the teams of the last couple of years.
In addition to betting trends though, our simulation + power rankings framework makes the Rockets to be about a bucket better than the Suns at Talking Stick Arena this evening. One of the sim models in our stable calls for a comfortable straight up win for the Suns, while one of the power rankings models sees these teams as even tonight. As such, we are comfrotable taking the Suns and the points.
Yesterday, the Phoenix dished disgruntled Forward, Markieff Morris, to Washington in exchange for a first round draft pick and Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair. As such chemistry is likely to improve immediately in Phoenix. We regard this as a modest support for our play.
Happy betting!!