Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets +3.5 (-105) u214.5 (-105)
Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
February 22, 2016 2:00PM PST
The Nuggets are among the hottest teams in the league against the spread, as indicated either by Denver's 16-6 record in calendar 2016 or by their overall ATS record of 32-23-2. However, at 31-24-1, the Celtics are also solid versus the number. Further, similar to the Nuggets' recent roll, Boston has collected covers in 12 of their last 18 games.
With that said, betting trends do provide at least modest support for the notion that Denver will cover today. For instance, the Nuggets are 20-11-1 ATS following a loss (Sacramento edged past Denver Friday, 105-104), while Boston is 12-11 after dropping a game (the Celts took a spanking at the hands of the Utah Jazz two days ago). Further, Boston is 7-8 versus the line as the road favorite, but Denver is 10-9-1 as the home dog.
Moreover, Denver has played better facing the East than Boston has against the West (not surprising, given the vast disparity in talent between the two conferences). The Nuggets are 12-6-2 facing generally weaker Eastern Conference foes, while Boston is 9-7-1 versus the West.
Our multi-factor computer simulation + power rankings framework makes the Celtics about 1-2 points superior tonight. This signal, in conjunction with the recent trends make betting on the Nuggets +3.5 an attractive proposition.
Our forecast of a final score of 106-107 (Boston) also supports the UNDER, and we are betting accordingly. A disappointing final score is likely to coincide with a poor offensive showing from the visiting team. The Celtics have, in fact, demonstrated a modest propensity toward the UNDER when playing away from TD Garden generally and when favored on the road.
Happy betting!!