LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks u209.5 (-105)
American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
March 7, 2016, 5:30PM PST
We are looking for a total aggregated score of 207 or lower when the Clippers visit the Mavs this afternoon. Consistent with this outlook, we are betting under 209.5.
The Clips' have exhibited a natural bias toward the under this year, as is evident in their 25-34-2 O/U record. Consistent with Los Angeles' deliberate style of play over the entirety of the season, LA's O/U is 14-20-1 in Blake Griffin's absence (the star forward last suited up on Christmas Day).
Also of note, the under has cashed in with increasing regularity more recently (i.e. the Clippers' under is 9-3-1 since the end of January). Moreover, LA's under record is especially strong coming off losses, such as Saturday's defeat at the hands of the visiting Atlanta Hawks (the Clippers' O/U record is 6-13-1 from this position).
Additionally, Dallas and Los Angeles are a combined 33-38-3 this season facing competition from the Western Conference.
Flying in the face of the output from our sim work tohugh, Mavs' scoring tends to exceed expectations when Dallas is cast as the home underdog (O/U is 6-3 under these conditions). Also the Mavericks' O/U is 9-5 in second game of back-to-back sequences.
Happy betting!!