Miami Heat +11.5 (-104) @ San Antonio Spurs
AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
March 23, 2016, 5:30PM PDT
Our primary (computer simulation + power rankings) framework sees the Spurs at home as 8-10 points better than the Heat this evening. Accordingly, we are snapping up the close to dozen points and backing the road dogs.
Miami is playing solid basketball of late, having won 9 of their last 12 out straight up, and covering in 7 of those contests. Moreover, the South Beach crew have covered in each of their last two out (versus the Cavs and then at the Pelicans).
Further, while the Heat being cast as double-digit underdogs is a rare phenomenon this season, Miami has covered in two of the three recorded instances.
Conversely, the Spurs are 19-14 ATS overall when favored by 10 or more, but have covered only twice in the last eight games they has been expected to win big.
Broadly speaking, San Antonio is 2-4 ATS of late, and is coming off a stunning loss Monday to the Charlotte Hornets.
We are not calling for the Spurs to meltdown here. In fact, we expect San Antonio to pick up the straight up win in a bounce-back performance tonight. However, we view 11.5 as too big a lay against a Heat team that appears to be gelling as the playoffs approach.
Take Miami and the points.
Happy betting!!