Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers u214 (-105)
Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
March 25. 2016, 7:30PM PDT
Our multi-factor simulation framework sees the Lakers barely edging by the Nuggets, 105-104. Thus, we regard u214 as the most attractive play for this contest. (Note: Las Vegas betting lines imply a final score of 105.5-108.5, Denver.)
Supporting our sim-based conclusion, consider that, broadly speaking, the Lakers have exhibited a modest bias toward the under. LA's aggregate o/u record is 32-38-1. More compelling though, the Lakers are 10-20 as underdogs at Staples Center, and are 16-25-1 playing after a night off.
In contrast, the Nuggets' totals have tended toward the over this season (41-29-2). Further, Denver's o/u is 17-12 following a winning effort, and 11-4 when the Nuggets are favored to win. However, Keneth Faried's (expected) continued absence exerts downward pressure on the total (the 5th year Forward from Morehead State boasts a positive Offensive RPM and a negative defensive RPM for the curernt season). To wit, Denver's over is a mere 2-2 in Faried's four-game absence.
Bottom line: We are backing the under mainly on the strength of the output from our simulation-based model. But betting trends for the Lakers likewise offer strong support for this play. While the Nuggets scoring has shown a greater inclination to go over than under this season, and there are relevant trends for Denver that hint at a higher-scoring affair this evening, we are betting that the Manimal's absence will sap enough energy from Denver's offense to secure a payday for the under.
Happy betting!!